Does Johor rent pay the loan? We checked 125 condo projects

Stacked Homes called me this week for a [piece on Johor SEZ rental yields and oversupply]. The question was the one everyone is asking. Is the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) the real thing, and should you buy now?

My answer was that Johor isn't one market. Growth will look different from area to area, because supply levels vary a lot. After the call we put numbers on that, using data we already hold. This post is what we found.

What do the headline numbers say about Johor SEZ property?

They look good. According to Savills research cited by Stacked Homes, homes in the nine JS-SEZ flagship zones grew 7 to 9% a year in price, against 2 to 4% for Johor as a whole. Rental yields in the zones are 6 to 8%, against 5 to 6% statewide. A lot of that is corporate tenants: engineers, technical managers and regional staff who need to live near work.

The nine zones are the JB waterfront, Iskandar Puteri, Tanjung Pelepas, Tanjung Langsat, Senai-Skudai, Kulai-Sedenak, Desaru-Penawar, Forest City and Pengerang.

How many homes in Johor are unsold?

About 9,972 homes were still unsold in Johor in the first half of 2026, Stacked Homes reports. That's more than double KL. Johor also plans to add around 115,000 homes by 2030.

How did we check?

We took 125 condo and apartment projects in southern Johor and put two numbers next to each other:

What it sold for. NAPIC's stamped sale records for that project, using only sales of the same unit type (condo units for a condo, flat units for a flat) from the last 24 months. Projects with no sale in that window were left out. We took the median price per square foot.

What it's listed to rent for. Whole-unit rental listings on MyRumahBaru for the same project, live now or posted in the last six months. We took the median asking rent per square foot.

A year's rent divided by the price gives the gross rental yield. It's before maintenance, vacancy and agent fees.

Then we measured each project's distance to the nearer of two places: the Bukit Chagar RTS station (next to the CIQ and JB city centre) or Medini in Iskandar Puteri.

To judge the yield, we used one line. A 90% loan over 35 years at 4% costs about 4.8% of the price every year. If the rent is below that, you top up from your own pocket every month.

Is rental yield higher near the RTS or Medini?

No. Close in costs the most per square foot. The rent goes up with it, but the yield doesn't:

Within 3 km: 35 projects, median sale price RM553 psf, median yield 5.4% (middle half 5.0 to 6.0%)
3 to 10 km: 61 projects, median sale price RM413 psf, median yield 5.6% (middle half 5.1 to 6.1%)
Over 10 km: 29 projects, median sale price RM483 psf, median yield 5.6% (middle half 5.0 to 7.0%)

(Median means the one in the middle. Half the projects yield more, half yield less.)

How many Johor condo projects don't cover the loan?

Within 3 km: 17% (6 of 35) rent below the loan cost
3 to 10 km: 15% (9 of 61) rent below the loan cost
Over 10 km: 24% (7 of 29) rent below the loan cost

Near or far, 15% to 24% of projects rent for less than the loan costs, before maintenance and vacancy. Being close to the RTS or Medini doesn't protect you. The building decides it.

Hasn't Johor been through this before?

Yes. As Stacked Homes lays out, Iskandar Malaysia started life in 2006 as the South Johor Economic Region. Over the next decade developers put up tower after tower aimed at overseas buyers, many from China. Around 2017 China made it harder to move money out, and by 2018 the rules for Forest City's foreign buyers were up in the air. The buyers dried up but the towers kept getting finished, and Johor ended up with the biggest pile of unsold homes in the country.

This time Singapore is planning the SEZ with Malaysia, and I think that's a real reason to be more hopeful. But as Stacked Homes put it, "the real test is in the execution", and it's still too early to call.

Is the RTS Link already priced in?

In places, yes. The RTS Link has been delayed to February 2027. Some asking prices already assume the train, the zone and the jobs are all here. If a price is based on planned infrastructure, factor in when it actually gets delivered.

What should you check before buying in Johor?

1. What did units in that project actually sell for? Not the asking price. Our guide on [how to check actual property prices in Malaysia] shows you how.
2. Does a year's rent cover about 4.8% of that price? If not, you're topping up every month.
3. Who actually rents there today? Look at current listings, not a 2030 projection.
4. How many units nearby are still empty? Lots of empty units nearby means more landlords chasing the same tenants, so rents stay low.
5. Does the price already assume a train that isn't running yet?

And check the flood history for the exact address. Here's [how to check flood risk before buying].

The short version

The SEZ is real and the headline numbers are real. Johor also still has a lot of unsold homes. Close to the RTS or Medini you pay the most per square foot, and the yield is no higher. Near or far, 15% to 24% of the projects we checked rent for less than the loan costs. Check the building, not the headline.

Got a Johor project in mind? Tell [Sarah] its name. She'll show you what homes there actually sold for, its flood risk and the crime level for the area. Free for buyers.